2026 Oscar Predictions: Standings Post-‘Wicked: For Good’

Ariana Grande is Glinda in Wicked for Good
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2026 Oscar Predictions: Standings Post-‘Wicked: For Good’

A NOTE FROM SCOTT Since our last check-in two weeks ago, the embargo lifted that had prevented pundits from talking about Universal’s Wicked: For Good, the second installment of Jon M. Chu’s big screen adaptation of the hit Broadway musical Wicked, which, like last year’s first installment, stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. I’ve been sitting on my thoughts for more than a month, which has been frustrating because I’ve been itching to say that the new film struck me as every bit as impressive as the year-old one, which, you may recall, was nominated for 10 Oscars — including best picture, actress (Erivo) and supporting actress (Grande) — and won two, best costume design and best production design. The biggest differences? This one has fewer songs that everyone knows… and even meatier performances from its stars.

Erivo and Grande, who are being pushed in the same categories that they were for the first film, will, if nominated, as I’m sure they will be, become just the seventh and eighth performers to land multiple acting noms for playing the same part in different years. The others: Sylvester Stallone, for Rocky (1976) and Creed (2015); Paul Newman, for The Hustler (1961) and The Color of Money (1986), who won for the latter; Cate Blanchett, for Elizabeth (1998) and Elizabeth: The Golden Age (2007); Al Pacino, for The Godfather (1972) and The Godfather: Part II (1974); Peter O’Toole, for Becket (1974) and The Lion in Winter (1968); and Bing Crosby, for Going My Way (1944) and The Bells of St. Mary’s (1945), who won for the former.

Both women are excellent in the film, but Erivo, in the best actress race, will be up against stiffer competition, including and especially Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley and Sentimental Value’s Renate Reinsve. Grande, however, is, in my estimation, the new and clear frontrunner for best supporting actress. Between the two Wicked films, she has given the sort of tour-de-force performance that the Academy has always had a very hard time resisting, particularly in that category. Think Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls, Ariana DeBose for West Side Story and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez — each a perfect pairing of an actress and a part, in a musical.

Erivo is currently just an O shy of an EGOT. Grande could soon become a GO.

In other news, Ella McKay, James L. Brooks’ first feature in 15 years, began screening last week, but reactions remain under embargo for social through Nov. 24 and for reviews through Dec. 10 — read into that what you will. Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, which began playing in select theaters on Oct. 17, arrived on Netflix on Nov. 7, and feels to me like the talk of the town; its talent, along with the talent associated with another film from the streamer, Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, including George Clooney and Adam Sandler, have been omnipresent in recent days.

At the box office, Christy, the Sydney Sweeney vehicle, debuted on Nov. 7 and had one of the lowest opening weekends ever for a film playing on more than 2,000 screens; Sweeney is very good in the film, but her clunky response to recent controversies has certainly not helped its or her prospects. Meanwhile, Sentimental Value, the Swedish Oscar entry and across-the-board contender, opened in just four theaters, all in New York and LA, and averaged $50,000 at each location, one of the best per-theater-averages of 2025 and among the 10 best ever for a non-English-language film.

On Nov. 7, the Grammy nominations announcement brought encouraging news for Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick’s “Golden,” the best original song Oscar frontrunner from best animated feature Oscar frontrunner KPop Demon Hunters (it was nominated for song of the year, best pop duo/group performance, best remixed recording non-classical and best song written for visual media); “Just Keep Watching,” the Tate McRae tune from F1: The Movie (nominated for best dance pop recording); “As Alive as You Need Me to Be,” a Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross number from Tron: Ares (nominated for best rock song and best song written for visual media); a trio of Sinners songs, “I Lied to You,” “Pale, Pale Moon” and “Sinners” (all nominated for best song written for visual media); and Diane Warren: Relentless, the documentary about Diane Warren (nominated for best music film).

On Nov. 9, the Critics Choice Documentary Awards were dominated by The Perfect Neighbor, the Netflix sensation about a terrible crime in Florida, which was recognized with five prizes including best documentary feature and best director for Geeta Gandbhir; Mariska Hargitay’s deeply personal directorial debut, My Mom Jayne, won best first documentary feature. And Paul Thomas Anderson’s best picture Oscar frontrunner One Battle After Another, on the heels of landing a record-breaking six Gotham Award noms on Oct. 28, will become available digitally on Friday.

Get ready for a barrage of promotion in the coming days, as virtually every Oscar contender will be in Hollywood for the Academy’s Governors Awards on Sunday!

PLEASE REMEMBER: Scott’s forecasts do not necessarily reflect his personal preferences. His aim is not to advocate for what he thinks the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. He arrives at his projections by screening many films, analyzing their campaigns, speaking with voters and studying relevant history and stats.

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